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Running it back

This post updates as the Knicks play. Latest stats · after 4 Knicks games
short-form fantasy

Does winning an NBA championship change a team’s fantasy value when the team runs it back?

2022-232023-24

Denver Nuggets
+10%

2023-242024-25

Boston Celtics
−15%

2024-252025-26

Oklahoma City Thunder
−23%

2025-262026-27

New York Knicks
−46% after 4 games

Dan in our fantasy league said:

Dan

I’d like to bench the whole Knicks team right now […]

That got me thinking. Does the fantasy value of a player get better or worse after he has just won a championship?

Looking at the last 3 championship teams, each brought back most of its title starting five(bar OKC, with an injury sidelining Jalen Williams for Cason Wallace). So, with the data we have, can we find out whether fantasy value takes a hit?

How much of the title five came back

DEN 2022-23 → 2023-24

100% started again

  1. Jamal Murray: started again in 2023-24
  2. Nikola Jokić: started again in 2023-24
  3. Aaron Gordon: started again in 2023-24
  4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: started again in 2023-24
  5. Michael Porter Jr.: started again in 2023-24
BOS 2023-24 → 2024-25

100% started again

  1. Jayson Tatum: started again in 2024-25
  2. Jrue Holiday: started again in 2024-25
  3. Jaylen Brown: started again in 2024-25
  4. Derrick White: started again in 2024-25
  5. Al Horford: started again in 2024-25
OKC 2024-25 → 2025-26

80% started again

  1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: started again in 2025-26
  2. Jalen Williams: injured, 33 games in 2025-26
  3. Chet Holmgren: started again in 2025-26
  4. Luguentz Dort: started again in 2025-26
  5. Isaiah Hartenstein: started again in 2025-26
Cason Wallace: new starter in 2025-26, in place of Jalen Williams Cason Wallacenew starter
NYK 2025-26 → 2026-27

100% started again, 4 games in

  1. Jalen Brunson: started again in 2026-27
  2. Josh Hart: started again in 2026-27
  3. Mikal Bridges: started again in 2026-27
  4. Karl-Anthony Towns: started again in 2026-27
  5. OG Anunoby: started again in 2026-27

Ring Value

We made up a formula to calculate team value. Team value adds up each player’s 9 CAT value above the waiver line (the 156th-best player), weighted by the games he played. Ring Value is a team’s value the season after its title minus its value in the title season. The Oklahoma City Thunder went from 26.4 in 2024-25 to 20.2 in 2025-26.

Why this way: a 9 CAT value is measured against everyone who played that season, so team value is a team’s standing against the league, which is what decides a fantasy matchup.

RingValue[OKC] = TeamValue[2025-26] − TeamValue[2024-25]

Ring Value[OKC] = 20.2 − 26.4 = −6.1

From title season to the run-it-back season

Team value to date after every game. The faded line is the title season; hover a game to compare the two. NYK 2026-27 is from ESPN box scores so far.

From game 4 to the full season

Choose a game to compare the same point in each season. Faded: title season. Bold: following season.

Denver Nuggets2022-23 → 2023-24
027.5551Game 4

2022-23: 16.9 · 2023-24: 22.5

After 4 games, 2023-24 is 33% ahead of the title season at the same point.

Boston Celtics2023-24 → 2024-25
035701Game 4

2023-24: 33.7 · 2024-25: 32.3

After 4 games, 2024-25 is 4% behind the title season at the same point.

Oklahoma City Thunder2024-25 → 2025-26
022.5451Game 4

2024-25: 31.6 · 2025-26: 28.9

After 4 games, 2025-26 is 9% behind the title season at the same point.

New York Knicks2025-26 → 2026-27
017.5351Game 4

2025-26: 24.4 · 2026-27: 10.1

Title defence: 4 games completed. Its line stops there.

Ring Value, player by player

A fantasy league is not about the NBA team, it’s about the players. So we extend the formula to focus on the individual: his value above the waiver line times the share of the season he played, the season after minus the title season, measured wherever he played. Missed games count against him.

RingValue[player] = max(0, v − v₁₅₆) × g ÷ 82, season after − title season
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 Title season Season after Pritchard +4.0 Williams −3.2 Dort −2.9 Hyland −2.8 Holmgren +2.1 Wiggins −2.0
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 Title season Season after Pritchard +4.0 Williams −3.2 Dort −2.9 Hyland −2.8 Holmgren +2.1 Wiggins −2.0

9 CAT value per game for every title rotation player of DEN, BOS, OKC, the title season on the left and the season after on the right, where 0 is an average rotation player. The biggest moves are named; hover any line for the numbers. A player who moved on is measured with his new team.

DEN2022-23Ring Value2023-24
Nikola Jokić10.269 games +2.312.579 games
Jamal Murray2.965 games +1.14.059 games
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope2.176 games −0.41.776 games
Aaron Gordon0.968 games −0.50.473 games
Michael Porter Jr.2.262 games +1.03.281 games
Bruce Brownleft for IND/TOR1.480 games −1.40.067 games
Bones Hylandleft for LAC0.056 games +0.00.037 games

Best mover: Nikola Jokić +2.3 Ring Value

2022-23Championship season · 69 games
FG%
63.2%
FT%
82.2%
3PM
0.8
PTS
24.5
REB
11.8
AST
9.8
STL
1.3
BLK
0.7
TO
3.6
2023-24Following season · 79 games
FG%
58.3%
FT%
81.7%
3PM
1.1
PTS
26.4
REB
12.4
AST
9.0
STL
1.4
BLK
0.9
TO
3.0

Worst mover: Bruce Brown −1.4 Ring Value

2022-23Championship season · 80 games
FG%
48.3%
FT%
75.8%
3PM
1.1
PTS
11.5
REB
4.1
AST
3.4
STL
1.1
BLK
0.6
TO
1.5
2023-24Following season · 67 games
FG%
47.8%
FT%
82.4%
3PM
0.8
PTS
10.8
REB
4.2
AST
2.9
STL
0.9
BLK
0.3
TO
1.3

Season averages per game. Shooting percentages use total makes and attempts. Green indicates an improvement, including fewer turnovers.

BOS2023-24Ring Value2024-25
Jayson Tatum6.874 games −0.46.472 games
Jaylen Brown2.570 games −0.71.863 games
Jrue Holiday2.669 games −1.31.362 games
Derrick White5.473 games −0.54.976 games
Al Horford2.065 games −1.10.960 games
Kristaps Porziņģis5.557 games −2.43.142 games
Payton Pritchard0.082 games +2.72.780 games

Best mover: Payton Pritchard +2.7 Ring Value

2023-24Championship season · 82 games
FG%
46.8%
FT%
82.1%
3PM
1.8
PTS
9.6
REB
3.2
AST
3.4
STL
0.5
BLK
0.1
TO
0.7
2024-25Following season · 80 games
FG%
47.2%
FT%
84.5%
3PM
3.2
PTS
14.3
REB
3.8
AST
3.5
STL
0.9
BLK
0.2
TO
1.0

Worst mover: Kristaps Porziņģis −2.4 Ring Value

2023-24Championship season · 57 games
FG%
51.6%
FT%
85.8%
3PM
1.9
PTS
20.1
REB
7.2
AST
2.0
STL
0.7
BLK
1.9
TO
1.6
2024-25Following season · 42 games
FG%
48.3%
FT%
80.9%
3PM
2.5
PTS
19.5
REB
6.8
AST
2.1
STL
0.7
BLK
1.5
TO
1.3

Season averages per game. Shooting percentages use total makes and attempts. Green indicates an improvement, including fewer turnovers.

OKC2024-25Ring Value2025-26
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander13.476 games −2.910.568 games
Jalen Williamsinjured, 33 games4.969 games −4.01.033 games
Luguentz Dort1.171 games −1.10.069 games
Isaiah Hartenstein2.357 games −1.50.847 games
Chet Holmgren1.832 games +3.65.469 games
Cason Wallace1.768 games −0.21.477 games
Aaron Wiggins0.176 games −0.10.065 games

Best mover: Chet Holmgren +3.6 Ring Value

2024-25Championship season · 32 games
FG%
49.0%
FT%
75.4%
3PM
1.4
PTS
15.0
REB
8.0
AST
2.0
STL
0.7
BLK
2.2
TO
1.8
2025-26Following season · 69 games
FG%
55.7%
FT%
79.2%
3PM
1.3
PTS
17.1
REB
8.9
AST
1.7
STL
0.6
BLK
1.9
TO
1.6

Worst mover: Jalen Williams −4.0 Ring Value

2024-25Championship season · 69 games
FG%
48.4%
FT%
78.9%
3PM
1.8
PTS
21.6
REB
5.3
AST
5.1
STL
1.6
BLK
0.7
TO
2.2
2025-26Following season · 33 games
FG%
48.4%
FT%
83.7%
3PM
0.7
PTS
17.1
REB
4.6
AST
5.5
STL
1.2
BLK
0.3
TO
1.9

Season averages per game. Shooting percentages use total makes and attempts. Green indicates an improvement, including fewer turnovers.

NYK2025-26Ring Value2026-274 games
Jalen Brunson3.774 games −3.70.04 games
OG Anunoby3.867 games −3.30.44 games
Mikal Bridges4.282 games −4.20.04 games
Karl-Anthony Towns5.375 games −1.53.84 games
Josh Hart1.766 games +4.15.84 games
Miles McBride0.041 games +0.00.04 games
Landry Shamet0.051 games +0.00.04 games

Best mover: Josh Hart +4.1 Ring Value

2025-26Championship season · 66 games
FG%
50.8%
FT%
72.0%
3PM
1.5
PTS
12.0
REB
7.4
AST
4.8
STL
1.1
BLK
0.3
TO
1.9
2026-27Following season · 4 games
FG%
44.4%
FT%
66.7%
3PM
2.3
PTS
10.8
REB
7.8
AST
3.5
STL
2.8
BLK
0.3
TO
2.0

Worst mover: Mikal Bridges −4.2 Ring Value

2025-26Championship season · 82 games
FG%
49.0%
FT%
82.7%
3PM
1.9
PTS
14.4
REB
3.8
AST
3.7
STL
1.3
BLK
0.8
TO
1.0
2026-27Following season · 4 games
FG%
27.3%
FT%
—
3PM
1.0
PTS
5.5
REB
3.0
AST
2.5
STL
0.5
BLK
0.5
TO
0.8

Season averages per game. Shooting percentages use total makes and attempts. Green indicates an improvement, including fewer turnovers.

Standouts

Floor time decided it. Players handed a bigger role or back from a short season rose most (+2.1 and +2.1 a game). Players whose minutes held barely moved (+0.9 and −0.9). The falls grew with the floor time lost: a smaller role −1.9, a new team −2.3, an injury −3.2. Position doesn’t split them: guards, wings and bigs are on both sides.

Bigger role +4.4 minutes a game Pritchard +4.0, Porter +0.2
+2.1
Healthy again 32 → 69 games Holmgren +2.1
+2.1
Same role minutes within 2 a game Murray +1.8, Jokić +0.8, Tatum +0.1
+0.9
Same role minutes within 2 a game Wallace −0.2, Brown −0.3, White −0.4, Caldwell-Pope −0.5, Gordon −0.7, Horford −1.0, Gilgeous-Alexander −1.5, Porziņģis −1.6, Wiggins −2.0
−0.9
Smaller role −2.8 minutes a game Holiday −1.0, Hartenstein −1.7, Dort −2.9
−1.9
New team IND/TOR, LAC Brown −1.8, Hyland −2.8
−2.3
Injured 33 games Williams −3.2
−3.2

Should I draft a championship starter?

A starting spot on a championship team earns no automatic draft premium. In these three completed follow-up seasons, 5 of 15 title starters improved per game, but only 4 delivered more season Ring Value. These are three teams, not a forecast of any player’s odds.

Value per game Jamal Murray: +1.8Nikola Jokić: +0.8Aaron Gordon: −0.7Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: −0.5Michael Porter Jr.: +0.2Jayson Tatum: +0.1Jrue Holiday: −1.0Jaylen Brown: −0.3Derrick White: −0.4Al Horford: −1.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: −1.5Jalen Williams: −3.2Chet Holmgren: +2.1Luguentz Dort: −2.9Isaiah Hartenstein: −1.7 5 rose · 0 unchanged · 10 fell
Season Ring Value Jamal Murray: +1.1Nikola Jokić: +2.3Aaron Gordon: −0.5Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: −0.4Michael Porter Jr.: +1.0Jayson Tatum: −0.4Jrue Holiday: −1.3Jaylen Brown: −0.7Derrick White: −0.5Al Horford: −1.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: −2.9Jalen Williams: −4.0Chet Holmgren: +3.6Luguentz Dort: −1.1Isaiah Hartenstein: −1.5 4 rose · 0 unchanged · 11 fell
One dot per title starter. Green rose, red fell; unchanged means 0.0 at the displayed precision. Season value also counts missed games.

The five starters who improved per game did not all get a clearer path to minutes. Here is how their minutes per game changed, and who stayed, left or joined behind them.

Jamal Murray DEN · 2022-23 → 2023-24

Per game +1.8 · Season Ring Value +1.1

32.8 → 31.5 minutes per game

Backups: Bruce Brown left; Reggie Jackson stayed.

Nikola Jokić DEN · 2022-23 → 2023-24

Per game +0.8 · Season Ring Value +2.3

33.7 → 34.6 minutes per game

Backups: DeAndre Jordan stayed; Zeke Nnaji stayed.

Michael Porter Jr. DEN · 2022-23 → 2023-24

Per game +0.2 · Season Ring Value +1.0

29.0 → 31.7 minutes per game

Backups: Peyton Watson stayed; Jeff Green left; Justin Holiday joined.

Jayson Tatum BOS · 2023-24 → 2024-25

Per game +0.1 · Season Ring Value −0.4

35.7 → 36.4 minutes per game

Backup: Sam Hauser stayed.

Chet Holmgren OKC · 2024-25 → 2025-26

Per game +2.1 · Season Ring Value +3.6

27.4 → 28.9 minutes per game

Backup: Jaylin Williams stayed.

The reason to move a player up is a better opportunity or availability outlook at his draft price. The cases above tell you what to check: a backup leaving, a backup developing, a returning player’s health, or a changing share of the minutes. They also show why an unchanged roster alone is not enough. Tatum improved per game and still lost season value; Murray improved with fewer minutes; Porter and his backup both played more.

Aging can shift opportunity towards a younger reserve, but age alone does not tell us who gets it. Boston’s Pritchard/Holiday example below is a change to investigate in the rotation, not proof that winning a title caused it.

When the backup gains

Bringing back the same starting five does not mean bringing back the same distribution of minutes and shots. Boston kept its title five, yet Pritchard went from 22.3 to 28.4 minutes a game while Holiday went from 32.8 to 30.6. Pritchard’s Ring Value rose +2.7.

For the Knicks, 4 games is still an opening sample. The question as this post updates is whether their roles are changing, or whether the same players are simply producing different numbers in the same roles.

Data and methods

Data from basketball-reference.com (season totals and the title playoff starters), ESPN (box scores, game by game, and the starters of each season after) and NBA.com (headshots).

A player’s value per game is the site’s 9 CAT z-score sum, with FG% and FT% weighted by attempts and turnovers counted against, measured against his own season’s league. The 2026-27 season is only 4 games old, too few to make a league of its own, so its games are measured against last season’s league.

The waiver line is the 156th-best player with at least 20 games that season (12 teams with 13 active slots), and anyone below it counts as zero. A player’s Ring Value is his value above the line multiplied by the share of the season he played (games ÷ 82), in the season after minus the same in the title season, wherever he played. For example, Jalen Williams played 33 games in 2025-26, so his 1.0 counts for far less than the 4.9 he gave the Oklahoma City Thunder in their title season, a Ring Value of −4.0.

The question came from a fantasy manager in our league early in the 2026-27 season, lamenting the New York Knicks’ poor start to their title defence.

A team’s value is the same sum over everyone who played for the team that season, counting only his games for that team. The rotation players in the charts are the title five plus anyone with 20 games and 15 minutes a game for the champion, up to seven a team; the title five are the five players with the most playoff starts.